The $1,000 gold fan club? Absolutely. And, as far as fan clubs
go, this one's membership is swelling daily. There's no question that
the number of financial analysts who see gold topping the $1,000 mark
have suddenly become as common as Tom Brady touchdown passes. But
whether these folks are newcomers to the gold bandwagon or have been
riding confidently along for years, it's remarkable just how many
analysts now see nothing but good for gold.
Here, for example, is what a few $1,000 gold prognosticators have to say...
o The Falling Dow/Gold Ratio. The Dow/Gold Ratio - the number of gold ounces it takes to buy one share of the Dow Jones Index - has fallen from 42 in 2000 to nearly 19 in 2007. "What is interesting," said analyst Dr. Marc Farber, "is that despite the stock market's rebound since October 2002, the Dow/Gold Ratio has continued to decline. Simply put for the holder of gold - the world's only honest currency, since it cannot be printed by some dishonest central banker - the Dow, although it increased in value in dollar terms, has continued to decline in gold terms with the result that, today, it 'only' takes 20 ounces of gold to buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average.
"Simply put, since 2000, gold has risen at a much faster clip than the Dow Jones and I would expect this out-performance to continue for the next few years until 'gold currency' holders will be able to buy one Dow Jones with just one ounce of gold.
"Now, you may think that I have become insane (but) I am convinced that the US Fed's monetary policies will lead to exponentially widening wealth inequity and impoverish the majority of US households, which will then lead to social strife, protectionism, war, and the breakdown of the capitalistic system.
"However, if one considers that in 1932 and in 1980 one could indeed buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average with just one ounce of gold, then maybe my views are rather conservative. Possibly one will be able to buy, sometime in future, one Dow Jones with just half an ounce of gold!"
With that in mind, Farber believes we could be in store for a lot more than just $1,000 gold.
o In 1980 Dollars, Gold is Just Half-Price. John Hathaway, managing director of Tocqueville Asset Management, believes $1,000 gold isn't far off. "I don't think it will take much. Let's not forget, in 1980 dollars, gold is less than half of its nominal price today.
"The disparity between the amount of paper that has been created since 1980 and the amount of gold that has been produced since then is just enormous. The ratio of financial assets to physical gold is at the low end of a historical range. If you were to mark all the gold to market that has ever been mined, which is a very conservative approach, and then take the valuation of all the global stock markets and all the global bond markets, gold represents about 3%, compared with a figure in the mid-20% range in 1980, which was the top of the bull market in gold and the beginning of the bull market in financial assets.
"Gold is a good value, certainly, at these prices, just based on the considerations we've discussed. Even if you don't think worst-case outcomes are in the cards, gold is still rare and hard to find, and believe me, these companies are having the toughest times trying to maintain production, much less build it."
o Central Banks Abandon Control of Gold. Two Citigroup metals analysts wrote that central banks faced a choice between a global recession and their continuing "control" of gold.
They chose to focus on staving off global recession.
"We believe that the policy resolution to the credit crunch will take the form of a massive, extended 'reflationary rescue' in a new cycle of global credit creation and competitive currency devaluation which could take gold to $1,000/oz or higher."
o Slashing Interest Rates Will Only Add Fuel to the Fire. Analyst John Ing believes $1,000 gold is just on the horizon. His reasoning? Bankers are out of bullets when it comes to settling U.S. debt battles.
"Ironically, while there is a crisis of confidence in the credit markets, the world is awash in liquidity due to the gargantuan current account surpluses of China and other Asian countries as well as the Middle-East," Ing wrote. "The problem however, is not the supply of surpluses, but the imbalance between the short term and long term obligations of the world's biggest debtor and the United States."
"As long as there is a lack of confidence in the short term, central banks are faced with the dilemma as to how to supply liquidity. Today, central banks continue to boost money supply but the monetary aggregates were already growing at double-digit levels and they had little room to maneuver. What is likely then is a dramatic reduction in interest rates, which will serve as a short term palliative. But this will not correct the imbalances. Central banks have tried to stabilize the global financial system by pumping large amounts of liquidity into the markets. To date, they have only addressed the symptoms of the underlying crisis. The situation will become even worse."
o "Gold Is the Purist Play Against the Dollar." When the former head of technical research at Citigroup predicts gold is heading not to $1,000, but to $3,000, it makes great sense to pay attention.
"Gold is the purest play against the dollar," Louise Yamada, managing director of Yamada Technical Research Advisors said. She predicted gold would surpass $730 on its way to $3,000 inside of a decade.
o "Still Cheap Relative to Oil or Base Metals." Australia's Fat Prophets newsletter is another prominent member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
"We think the price could reach $850 an ounce by the end of the year, based on issues in the US housing market," senior equities analyst Greg Canavan says. "US housing was an accident waiting to happen. We have also been forecasting an eventual price of $1000, and we would expect that in the first half of 2008.
"In the US, we expect further interest rate cuts. In Europe, the euro is getting stronger, with implications for exports. It could lead to a slowdown there," he went on to say. "Also in Europe, the Bank of England had said it would not be bailing out lenders. But now it has been told that it must do so. So investors are seeing that gold is a fundamental store of wealth."
Canavan added, "You should have 10 per cent of your portfolio in bullion or gold stocks. Also, it is considerably undervalued right now so it is more than just insurance. Despite being at more than 20-year highs it is still cheap relative to oil or base metals."
o World Currencies "Becoming Increasingly Doubted." James Turk in his Freemarket Gold & Money Report believes $1,500 gold is possible.
"A blow-off leg in gold is looking increasingly likely once it clears $1,000. Think about this a moment. The US dollar is now trading at record lows, with no bottom in sight. Commodity prices are soaring, with wheat at over $9 per bushel and crude oil looking increasingly well supported over $80 per barrel. Gold is rising against all the world's currencies, indicating that fiat national currencies backed by nothing but promises from over-indebted governments are becoming increasingly doubted. Britain just experienced the world's biggest bank run since the 1930s. ... We should be mentally prepared for the possibility that gold exceeds $1,000 within the next few months, and then just keeps climbing to a blow-off high.
"How high? A doubling of the gold price has happened before in blow-offs like the one I am describing, so $1,500 or more is not out of the question."
So...where are you with your investments? Are you overly reliant on those worrisome "paper" investments at a time when more and more people want to hold something of authentic value in their hands? If that's the case - and even if you've never joined a fan club your entire life - today may be the perfect time to become a member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
Here, for example, is what a few $1,000 gold prognosticators have to say...
o The Falling Dow/Gold Ratio. The Dow/Gold Ratio - the number of gold ounces it takes to buy one share of the Dow Jones Index - has fallen from 42 in 2000 to nearly 19 in 2007. "What is interesting," said analyst Dr. Marc Farber, "is that despite the stock market's rebound since October 2002, the Dow/Gold Ratio has continued to decline. Simply put for the holder of gold - the world's only honest currency, since it cannot be printed by some dishonest central banker - the Dow, although it increased in value in dollar terms, has continued to decline in gold terms with the result that, today, it 'only' takes 20 ounces of gold to buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average.
"Simply put, since 2000, gold has risen at a much faster clip than the Dow Jones and I would expect this out-performance to continue for the next few years until 'gold currency' holders will be able to buy one Dow Jones with just one ounce of gold.
"Now, you may think that I have become insane (but) I am convinced that the US Fed's monetary policies will lead to exponentially widening wealth inequity and impoverish the majority of US households, which will then lead to social strife, protectionism, war, and the breakdown of the capitalistic system.
"However, if one considers that in 1932 and in 1980 one could indeed buy one Dow Jones Industrial Average with just one ounce of gold, then maybe my views are rather conservative. Possibly one will be able to buy, sometime in future, one Dow Jones with just half an ounce of gold!"
With that in mind, Farber believes we could be in store for a lot more than just $1,000 gold.
o In 1980 Dollars, Gold is Just Half-Price. John Hathaway, managing director of Tocqueville Asset Management, believes $1,000 gold isn't far off. "I don't think it will take much. Let's not forget, in 1980 dollars, gold is less than half of its nominal price today.
"The disparity between the amount of paper that has been created since 1980 and the amount of gold that has been produced since then is just enormous. The ratio of financial assets to physical gold is at the low end of a historical range. If you were to mark all the gold to market that has ever been mined, which is a very conservative approach, and then take the valuation of all the global stock markets and all the global bond markets, gold represents about 3%, compared with a figure in the mid-20% range in 1980, which was the top of the bull market in gold and the beginning of the bull market in financial assets.
"Gold is a good value, certainly, at these prices, just based on the considerations we've discussed. Even if you don't think worst-case outcomes are in the cards, gold is still rare and hard to find, and believe me, these companies are having the toughest times trying to maintain production, much less build it."
o Central Banks Abandon Control of Gold. Two Citigroup metals analysts wrote that central banks faced a choice between a global recession and their continuing "control" of gold.
They chose to focus on staving off global recession.
"We believe that the policy resolution to the credit crunch will take the form of a massive, extended 'reflationary rescue' in a new cycle of global credit creation and competitive currency devaluation which could take gold to $1,000/oz or higher."
o Slashing Interest Rates Will Only Add Fuel to the Fire. Analyst John Ing believes $1,000 gold is just on the horizon. His reasoning? Bankers are out of bullets when it comes to settling U.S. debt battles.
"Ironically, while there is a crisis of confidence in the credit markets, the world is awash in liquidity due to the gargantuan current account surpluses of China and other Asian countries as well as the Middle-East," Ing wrote. "The problem however, is not the supply of surpluses, but the imbalance between the short term and long term obligations of the world's biggest debtor and the United States."
"As long as there is a lack of confidence in the short term, central banks are faced with the dilemma as to how to supply liquidity. Today, central banks continue to boost money supply but the monetary aggregates were already growing at double-digit levels and they had little room to maneuver. What is likely then is a dramatic reduction in interest rates, which will serve as a short term palliative. But this will not correct the imbalances. Central banks have tried to stabilize the global financial system by pumping large amounts of liquidity into the markets. To date, they have only addressed the symptoms of the underlying crisis. The situation will become even worse."
o "Gold Is the Purist Play Against the Dollar." When the former head of technical research at Citigroup predicts gold is heading not to $1,000, but to $3,000, it makes great sense to pay attention.
"Gold is the purest play against the dollar," Louise Yamada, managing director of Yamada Technical Research Advisors said. She predicted gold would surpass $730 on its way to $3,000 inside of a decade.
o "Still Cheap Relative to Oil or Base Metals." Australia's Fat Prophets newsletter is another prominent member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
"We think the price could reach $850 an ounce by the end of the year, based on issues in the US housing market," senior equities analyst Greg Canavan says. "US housing was an accident waiting to happen. We have also been forecasting an eventual price of $1000, and we would expect that in the first half of 2008.
"In the US, we expect further interest rate cuts. In Europe, the euro is getting stronger, with implications for exports. It could lead to a slowdown there," he went on to say. "Also in Europe, the Bank of England had said it would not be bailing out lenders. But now it has been told that it must do so. So investors are seeing that gold is a fundamental store of wealth."
Canavan added, "You should have 10 per cent of your portfolio in bullion or gold stocks. Also, it is considerably undervalued right now so it is more than just insurance. Despite being at more than 20-year highs it is still cheap relative to oil or base metals."
o World Currencies "Becoming Increasingly Doubted." James Turk in his Freemarket Gold & Money Report believes $1,500 gold is possible.
"A blow-off leg in gold is looking increasingly likely once it clears $1,000. Think about this a moment. The US dollar is now trading at record lows, with no bottom in sight. Commodity prices are soaring, with wheat at over $9 per bushel and crude oil looking increasingly well supported over $80 per barrel. Gold is rising against all the world's currencies, indicating that fiat national currencies backed by nothing but promises from over-indebted governments are becoming increasingly doubted. Britain just experienced the world's biggest bank run since the 1930s. ... We should be mentally prepared for the possibility that gold exceeds $1,000 within the next few months, and then just keeps climbing to a blow-off high.
"How high? A doubling of the gold price has happened before in blow-offs like the one I am describing, so $1,500 or more is not out of the question."
So...where are you with your investments? Are you overly reliant on those worrisome "paper" investments at a time when more and more people want to hold something of authentic value in their hands? If that's the case - and even if you've never joined a fan club your entire life - today may be the perfect time to become a member of the $1,000 gold fan club.
You've seen him on Fox News Television and heard him on the Rush
Limbaugh Show. He's a published author, writer and an expert guest on
more than 1000 radio programs discussing today's economy and gold.
Kevin DeMeritt, President of Lear Financial, is a nationally renowned analyst whose insight into the future of domestic and global economies is unmatched.
His book, The Bulls The Bears and the Bust, reviewed by the Associated Press, predicted the market crash of 2001 and the ensuing rise of gold to the status of best investment.
At the helm of Lear Financial, Kevin DeMeritt has made Lear one of the most highly endorsed gold companies in the country. Relying on his insightful recommendations, uncanny market and trading skills and 20 years of experience in investment quality gold, Kevin has navigated thousands of portfolios to profitability through boom and bust times.
And, now more than ever, his insights are welcome by nervous investors.
Article Source:
http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kevin_A._Demeritt
Kevin DeMeritt, President of Lear Financial, is a nationally renowned analyst whose insight into the future of domestic and global economies is unmatched.
His book, The Bulls The Bears and the Bust, reviewed by the Associated Press, predicted the market crash of 2001 and the ensuing rise of gold to the status of best investment.
At the helm of Lear Financial, Kevin DeMeritt has made Lear one of the most highly endorsed gold companies in the country. Relying on his insightful recommendations, uncanny market and trading skills and 20 years of experience in investment quality gold, Kevin has navigated thousands of portfolios to profitability through boom and bust times.
And, now more than ever, his insights are welcome by nervous investors.
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